Week 15 of Vodacom United Rugby Championship rugby beckons this weekend after two knock-out rounds of EPCR Challenge Cup and Investec Champions Cup action, with the tournament reaching fever pitch with everything on the line and much to play for.
In the race to the eight, four rounds remain in which all manner of permutations can change the fortunes of 15 of the 16 competing sides, with just two certainties: that Leinster cannot finish lower than fourth and thus have guaranteed themselves a home quarter-final, and secondly, that the Dragons from Wales cannot finish in the top 8.
And therein lies the rub: the competition is still wide open, and 15 teams have their ambitions in their own hands in the 2024/25 edition of the VURC.
As far as permutations go, the final four weeks present a dream scenario for a statistician who must figure out all manner of possibilities that lie ahead.
What’s not so clear-cut is the gamble one must make to predict the outcome of games; but in the interests of fairness, leaning on history to be as close as possible in those predictions, let’s call home ground advantage on the remaining matches and give the home team the win in their remaining four games.
Leinster finish off the last four rounds with three home games, so they’re likely to remain in top spot, while Glasgow Warrior have a tough run of three away games, including the final pool clash in round 18 against Leinster which could see the third-placed Vodacom Bulls and even the Hollywoodbets Sharks overtake them, the teams in third and fourth position respectively four and nine points behind the Scots, both with two home and two away games remaining.
Munster are six points adrift of the Hollywoodbets Sharks and with three home games and just one away, will be pushing hard to make the top four and take home ground advantage in the quarter-finals. Their position in fifth looks to be safe.
Ulster, Benetton and Edinburgh make up the final three teams in the top 8, but it is Edinburgh, with a good home record who will fancy their chances of securing a place in the play-offs with two home and two away games.
Both Ulster and Benetton have only one home game remaining, and will be breathing a little harder knowing that the DHL Stormers, in 10th place and currently only one point away from the top 8, will be collecting points out of their four home game run into the quarters.
Cardiff are in ninth place with three away games look to have a difficult run ahead of them, ditto Scarlets (one home game) and Ospreys (two home games), with Connacht, in 13th place and one home game, also ruing mid-season form when they went through a four-match losing streak.
The Emirates Lions, South Africa’s fourth team, now lying in 14th place, are still in with a shout. They trail eighth-placed Edinburgh by six log points, but have a dream end to the pool stages with four home games and the potential to finish on 50 points, were they to achieve a full house of bonus point wins against Benetton, Connacht, Scarlets and Ospreys.
Given the above stats, facts and expectations, the possible scenario on the log could be Leinster to finish top with Glasgow, the Vodacom Bulls and the Hollywoodbets Sharks pivoting between second, third and fourth, depending on bonus points, closing out the chasing pack.
Those four teams would all host their respective quarter-finals at home, with the strong likelihood of a home semi-final.
The away teams for the knock-outs could see the DHL Stormers rise as far as fifth, along with Munster, the Emirates Lions also shooting up the table and into the top 8, with Edinburgh likely to take the final spot ahead of Ulster, Benetton and Ospreys.
