Nations Championship: Springboks Favourite To Win By 9-20 Points

13 November 2026

The Springboks Are The Favourites To Continue their Dominance Over France at the Stade de France in Paris on Friday, 13 November 2026, in Round 5 of the Nations Championship. Kick-off is set for 22:10 SAST.

Both nations enter the penultimate round of group play leading their respective hemisphere standings. South Africa tops the Southern Hemisphere pool on 20 points following a commanding 66–7 victory over Italy in Turin, while France leads the Northern Hemisphere group on 17 points after defeating Fiji 54–17.

Friday's result carries direct consequences for the inaugural tournament's overall final later this month. South Africa has won nine of its last 10 Tests against Les Bleus, including a 32–17 victory at the same venue last November.

Springbok coach Rassie Erasmus noted the high stakes ahead of the clash. "Matches between us and France are always intense, and this week will be no different," Erasmus said. "Both teams have everything to play for, with France leading the northern hemisphere standings and the team being ranked fourth in the world."

Erasmus made only two changes to his matchday 23 following the win in Italy. Wilco Louw starts at tighthead prop in place of Thomas du Toit, while scrumhalf Cobus Reinach comes onto the bench for Grant Williams. Veteran lock Eben Etzebeth has rejoined the touring squad after injury, though he misses out on the matchday squad.

Meanwhile, France coach Fabien Galthié faces a playmaking crisis due to injuries to his frontline fly-halves. In response, Galthié has shifted captain Antoine Dupont from scrumhalf to make his first Test start in the No. 10 jersey, partnering him with Maxime Lucu at nine.

Lucu brings structured game management and box-kicking accuracy inside Dupont, freeing the French skipper to attack the gainline with more time on the ball and deploy his kicking range in the primary playmaking channel. Galthié backed the selection ahead of the match, describing the pairing as "the best option for us" despite the disruption to his usual backline setup.

Erasmus has opted for continuity in his pack to assert dominance at the set-piece and breakdown. Louw joins Ox Nche and Malcolm Marx in a starting front row built to target scrum penalties and drive maul momentum.

The Springboks have also loaded their replacements bench with a 6–2 split in favour of forwards to maintain physical pressure throughout the final quarter. Despite France's backline adjustments, Nche insisted the pack must sharpen its accuracy after admitting the team was a "little loose" and out-determined at times during last week's win over Italy.

Erasmus echoed that caution, dismissing any suggestion that France's reshaped backline gives South Africa an automatic edge. He pointed out that both squads are managing key absences heading into the fixture.

Control of the tempo will dictate which side imposes its game plan on Friday night. If South Africa's pack dominates the collisions and slows down French ruck ball, Lucu and Dupont will struggle to find the space needed to launch counter-attacks.

Pundits overwhelmingly tip South Africa to win by 9 to 20 points, backing the Springboks' dominant forward pack and bench depth to overpower France's injury-disrupted backline. Analysts expect the South African forwards to win the collision and set-piece battles, creating front-foot ball for fly-half Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu to exploit France's unfamiliar defensive channels and neutralise the improvised Lucu-Dupont threat.

Teams:

France: 15 Théo Attissogbe, 14 Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang, 13 Kalvin Gourgues, 12 Yoram Moefana, 11 Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10 Antoine Dupont (c), 9 Maxime Lucu, 8 Gregory Alldritt, 7 Cameron Woki, 6 François Cros, 5 Mickaël Guillard, 4 Florian Verhaeghe, 3 Sipili Falatea, 2 Julien Marchand, 1 Jean-Baptiste Gros. Replacements: 16 Peato Mauvaka, 17 Rodrigue Neti, 18 Régis Montagne, 19 Charles Ollivon, 20 Tom Staniforth, 21 Esteban Capilla, 22 Axel Desperes, 23 Emilien Gailleton.

Springboks: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Lood de Jager, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nche. Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Cameron Hanekom, 21 Paul de Villiers, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok.