13 November 2026
South Africa could lose their position as the world’s top-ranked rugby team this weekend following the latest permutation figures released by World Rugby.
A loss or draw against France, combined with a New Zealand victory over Wales in Cardiff a day later, will see the Springboks drop from first place. The result could also see South Africa demoted to the third-place playoff in the inaugural Nations Championship tournament.
The battle at the summit of the World Rugby Men’s Rankings depends heavily on the clash between South Africa and France, as well as New Zealand's fixture against Wales.
South Africa and New Zealand: South Africa will surrender their number one ranking if they fail to beat France and New Zealand defeat Wales. Notably, New Zealand cannot gain any rating points from the match due to the 15.28-point differential between the two sides.
France: Les Bleus will climb to third place if they secure their first victory over the Springboks since 2022, regardless of how Ireland fare against Fiji in Dublin. France will only drop out of the top four if they lose by more than 15 points and England defeat Japan.
England: England can rise as high as third this weekend, though the scenario requires multiple results to align. They must beat Japan by more than 15 points, while France must lose by the same margin and Ireland must also suffer defeat.
Several teams ranked between sixth and twelfth face significant movement depending on match outcomes and winning margins across Europe.
Sixth and Seventh Place: The winner of Sunday’s match between Scotland and Australia at Murrayfield will claim sixth place. Argentina can only move up to seventh if they beat Italy and Australia lose to Scotland, provided at least one of those margins exceeds 15 points.
Eighth and Ninth Place: Fiji will rise to eighth if they record a first-ever win over Ireland and Argentina lose to Italy, with one margin greater than 15 points. A first Welsh victory over New Zealand since 1953 will lift Wales to ninth if Fiji are beaten, while Japan could also reach ninth with a win of more than 15 points if both Fiji and Wales lose.
The Top 10 Cutoff: Italy will return to the top 10 if they beat Argentina, provided Wales do not avoid defeat against New Zealand.
Further down the top 20, fixtures in the World Rugby Nations Cup will determine several tight positional battles.
13th and 14th Place: Georgia will only drop from 13th if they lose to Tonga by more than 15 points and Portugal defeat Samoa by the same margin, which would put Portugal level with their all-time high of 13th by 0.01 rating points. Current 14th-place holders Portugal, along with Tonga, the USA, and Spain, could all finish the weekend in 14th depending on margins and results.
Samoa and Chile: Samoa cannot fall out of the top 20 if they lose to Portugal, but they could climb up to four places with a win of more than 15 points and favourable results elsewhere. Meanwhile, Chile will move back ahead of Spain in the rankings if they win in Madrid.
The Top 20 Cutoff: Uruguay’s spot in the top 20 is under threat if they lose to Zimbabwe while Romania and Canada record victories. Romania, who fell to an all-time low of 23rd last week, can return to the top 20 if they beat the USA and both Canada and Uruguay lose to lower-ranked Hong Kong, China and Zimbabwe respectively.