The Springboks can not be replaced at the top of the World Rugby Rankings this weekend, even if they lose to Ireland by more than fifteen points. If they beat Wales next weekend, they will secure the top spot when the draw for the 2027 World Rugby Championship is made.
The 2027 Rugby World Cup draw will take place on Wednesday, December 2025, in Sydney, Australia. It will feature 24 teams, an expansion from the previous 20, divided into six pools of four.
South Africa, New Zealand, England, Ireland and Argentina cannot drop out of Band 1 for the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027, although the same cannot be said for France.
South Africa cannot surrender the number one ranking this weekend, even if they lose by more than 15 points to Ireland in Dublin. The Springboks can gain up to 1.32 points for beating Ireland by more than 15 points, and it is possible that their cushion at the top could be as much as 6.57 points if New Zealand and England suffer similarly heavy losses to Wales and Argentina, respectively.
Les Bleus will drop two places to seventh if they lose to Australia by more than 15 points, an outcome which will see the Wallabies placed into Pool A of Band 1 as the host nation.
Argentina’s comeback victory over Scotland last weekend means that they will remain in sixth place even if they suffer a heavy loss to England in the last match of the weekend.
There will also be plenty of eyes on Tbilisi where 11th-ranked Georgia hosts Japan in 13th. Georgia will secure a place in Band 2 for the Draw if they avoid defeat against Japan. A draw will see the Lelos drop below Wales into 12th place, even if the Welsh are beaten by New Zealand, given that they will lose no rating points as a consequence of the 16.09-point differential between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
Japan must beat Georgia to replace the Lelos in the top 12 after their last-gasp 24-23 loss to Wales last weekend in Cardiff.
Fiji, Scotland and Italy are also guaranteed their place in Band 2 regardless of their results against the lower-ranked Spain, Tonga and Chile respectively.
The Flying Fijians can only gain a maximum of 0.16 rating points for beating Spain, meaning they cannot improve on eighth place even if Australia, above them, lose to France.
Scotland and Italy will not gain any rating points for beating Tonga and Chile. However, Scotland will regain the eighth place they lost after letting slip a 21-0 advantage over Argentina to lose last weekend if they win and Fiji lose to Spain.
Scotland will drop to 10th if they suffer a second loss to Tonga and Italy beat Chile, dropping the Scots below Italy for the first time since February 2013.
That would become 11th if they lose by more than 15 points and Wales stun New Zealand by the same margin, the Welsh returning to the top 10 for the first time since July 2024.
