World Rugby has published the ranking permutations ahead of this weekend’s highly anticipated second rounds of the Nations Championship 2026 and World Rugby Nations Cup 2026. With 14 pivotal matches taking place across the globe, the international standings face a massive shake-up, impacting everything from the world number-one spot to historic top-10 breakthroughs.
Reigning champions South Africa risk surrendering their position at the summit of world rugby. The Springboks will lose their top ranking if they suffer a heavy defeat to Scotland by more than 15 points, combined with a New Zealand victory over Italy.
The All Blacks face their own pressure; a historic, first-ever loss to Italy will drop New Zealand to third place, provided Ireland defeat Japan in their clash in Australia. Meanwhile, France is poised to leapfrog Ireland into third place if the French defeat Australia and the Irish fall to Japan, assuming at least one of those matches is decided by a margin of more than 15 points. England could also climb as high as fourth with a victory over Fiji, but they require a Scotland defeat and a heavy French loss to do so.
A victory could propel the Scots to a historic all-time high of third or fourth place. However, a loss, paired with wins by England and Argentina (the latter by over 15 points), will completely erase the two places Scotland gained last week.
The Brave Blossoms can break into the top 10 for the first time since July 2023 if they upset Ireland, provided Italy and Wales both fail to win.
Wales will return to the top 10 for the first time since July 2024 with a victory over Los Pumas, conditional on Italy failing to beat New Zealand.
A significant win over England, coupled with an Australian defeat, could push Fiji up to seventh, though they cannot mathematically overtake England this weekend.
The World Rugby Nations Cup 2026 will see intense volatility among lower-ranked sides, with several teams playing for historical milestones:
Georgia remains entirely safe, locked into 13th place regardless of their outcome against Samoa.
Samoa, Spain, and Tonga all have the mathematical potential to climb as high as 14th place with dominant victories, depending on surrounding results.
Hong Kong China, can equal their all-time high of 21st place if they beat Chile—their upcoming opponent for the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027.
The USA faces a high-risk encounter against Zimbabwe. The Men’s Eagles will receive zero ranking point rewards for a win, but a shock defeat to the Sables could plummet the USA down five places while lifting Zimbabwe to a new historic high.
Romania faces the ultimate downside, risking the status of becoming the lowest-ranked team in the tournament if they lose to Uruguay and other lower-tier sides pull off simultaneous upsets.