World Rugby published the ranking permutations for the men's internationals in Europe, Asia and Africa this weekend, including the Autumn Nations Series, Elgon Cup and Rugby Europe competitions.
South Africa will return to number one in the world if they are victorious against Scotland on Sunday and Ireland fail to beat New Zealand on Friday. A draw would also be enough for the Springboks if Ireland lose.
Ireland are guaranteed to remain on top of the rankings if they beat New Zealand in Dublin, regardless of the outcome at Murrayfield. Ireland’s advantage at the top could increase to 3.35 rating points if both they and Scotland are victorious by more than 15 points.
New Zealand can also end the weekend as number one for the first time since the Rugby World Cup 2019 semi-final if they beat Ireland and South Africa lose to Scotland, a scenario which would see the All Blacks leapfrog both sides. If South Africa draws then New Zealand must beat Ireland by more than 15 points to claim the top spot and effectively swap places with Ireland.
France cannot improve their rating in fourth with victory over Japan as a result of the 14.65 points difference between the sides before home weighting is factored in.
However, there is scope for plenty of movement among the other teams in action in the Autumn Nations Series or men’s internationals this weekend.
Four teams can end the weekend in fourth place – current incumbents France and then Argentina, England and Scotland- if Les Bleus loses at home to Japan.
Los Pumas will jump two places to fourth if they beat Italy, and France will be beaten on home soil by Japan, regardless of what England does against Australia.
For England to climb to fourth they must not only defeat Australia but also hope that Argentina and Scotland fail to win and France lose by more than 15 points.
If Argentina and Scotland do win then England will fall a place to sixth even if they beat the Wallabies by more than 15 points – two if France’s defeat is by a smaller margin.
England have not been as low as seventh since February 2016.
Scotland must win by more than 15 points if Los Pumas secure a narrow victory to reach a new high of fourth place.
Italy are currently at their highest-ever position of eighth and cannot go any higher, even if they beat Argentina by more than 15 points as there is not a combination of results to make this possible.
The Azzurri could beat Los Pumas and still fall a place if Australia beat England at Allianz Stadium.
Fiji could climb as many as two places with victory over Wales, but it is dependent on the scoreline and results of other matches involving teams around them.
Wales cannot improve on the 11th place even if they beat Fiji by more than 15 points, although the deficit would be cut to just 0.03 rating points.
There is a scenario where Wales could drop to a new low of 12th – if they lose to Fiji by more than 15 points and Japan beat France by the same margin.
Japan would jump three places in this case, also climbing above both Samoa and Georgia who are not in test action this weekend with the latter playing the All Blacks XV in Montpellier.