A first defeat of The Rugby Championship 2024 will see South Africa surrender top spot in
the rankings to Ireland.
South Africa will fall to third if the margin of defeat is by more than 15 points with their conquerors New Zealand also climbing above the world champions. However, a fourth win of the Rugby Championship could see the Springboks increase their cushion at the top over Ireland to 1.56 points.
New Zealand cannot fall from third place even if they suffer back-to-back defeats in South Africa as they would still sit 1.18 points above France in fourth.
Argentina cannot regain the sixth place they lost to Scotland following last weekend’s loss to Australia even if they beat the Wallabies by more than 15 points in Santa Fe. This margin of victory would leave Los Pumas trailing Scotland by 0.33 rating points and see Australia fall back to ninth behind Italy.
Australia will rank seventh among the two teams if they beat Argentina. A win by more than 15 points would leave the Wallabies just 0.04 points behind Scotland in sixth. Defeat by this margin would see Argentina fall another place with Italy the beneficiary.
Meanwhile, in the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup this weekend Fiji are unable to improve on 10th place with victory over Tonga in Nuku’alofa.
It is a similar scenario for Japan, who can only pick up a maximum of 0.17 points for beating the USA in Kumagaya this weekend. The USA, however, will climb three places to 16th if they can beat the Brave Blossoms and Tonga loses at home to Fiji. They have not been ranked as high since November 2021.
Japan will drop a place and be replaced in 15th by Portugal if they lose to the Men’s Eagles.
A defeat by more than 15 points would leave Japan sitting a mere 0.21 points above the USA.
A win for Tonga by more than 15 points will see the ‘Ikale Tahi climb two places to 14th if combined with a Japanese defeat. Otherwise, they’ll have to settle for a one-place gain. Such a defeat would also cost Fiji their place in the top 10 with Wales replacing them.