The chances of the Vodacom Bulls preventing the Irish shut-out many are predicting for the deciding round of the Vodacom United Rugby Championship will depend on them being able to do in the semi-final what they have yet to do this season - produce an 80-minute performance.
The Bulls host Leinster, a shadow Ireland national team in all but name, in the first semi-final on Saturday, while Munster will play the Glasgow Warriors in the second game at Thomond Park in Limerick later in the evening. While Munster will start as strong favourites to secure the win that will see them host next week’s final, the home advantage enjoyed by the Bulls may balance out the contest yet not enough to prevent the visitors being cast as favourites.
At home, the Bulls do have a chance against anyone, but their chances of victory in this game may depend on them making what has become their customary fast start and then doing something they tend not to do, which is to keep the pressure on until the end of the game.
The trend that has been set by the Bulls at Loftus, with the significant exception of the one game they lost at home to Munster, has been for them to use the period when the visitors are adjusting to the altitude to build a big lead. They haven’t been punished for it, but a frustrating habit that has surely had their coach Jake White pulling at his hair in frustration has been for them to take the foot off the accelerator and allow the opposition to fight back.
Against a team as good as Leinster is, they can’t afford to do that. A lot will depend for the Bulls on how their bench fares when those players come on later in the game. Leinster, particularly with the Bulls missing Kurt-Lee Arendse and Canan Moodie, are a more experienced and decorated starting team on paper, but it is when you get to the bench that the margin between the teams becomes particularly pronounced. The teams are only set to be announced later on Friday, but the Leinster bench will probably boast more international caps than the entire Bulls squad. It is the Leinster depth of both talent and experience that gives them the edge against most teams. When the Bulls played Leinster in Dublin in league play, they were well in the game up until halftime. It was after that, when the experienced Leinster bench players came on, that the game shifted towards a one-sided win for the hosts.
What can stop Leinster though is for the Bulls to get off to a quick start and rack up points at the stage of the game when the visiting players are still getting used to the burning sensation at the back of the throats that comes with playing on the highveld.
The Bulls have punished a lot of teams early on this season in home games. Come to think of it, the other highveld teams, the Emirates Lions, have done the same. Think back to the Lions’ game against Leinster, where they were going at a point a minute up to the 20th minute. Leinster settled later and had some strong moments but they were always chasing the game after the initial Lions flurry and in doing so they made mistakes that were punished.
That the top Leinster players did not take their opportunity back then to get used to the conditions they will face on Saturday is of course helpful to the Bulls. But how much of a difference will it make unless the Bulls impact squad, as the Bulls call the reserves in their team announcement press releases, dig deep and raise their game when they come on?
Leinster have shown in the two games they’ve played since their Investec Champions Cup extra-time defeat to Toulouse that they are bristling with intent in their quest to make up for the past two seasons where they topped the log but ended up with nothing in terms of silverware.
It goes without saying that the Bulls will have to be a lot less passive than they were for long sections of last week’s quarterfinal against Benetton. One fancies though that starting as underdogs will suit them, and that gives them a very definite chance. It can be easier in a playoff game if there is less expectation, something the Bulls should know well as they beat Leinster at the RDS Arena when rank underdogs two seasons ago.
The memory of that game should inspire some confidence for the Bulls, but at the same time it will be another factor mitigating against the chances of Leinster arriving in a complacent mood.
The argument around assuming underdog status making a team more dangerous may apply to the Glasgow Warriors too. They played with great intensity and commitment as they ended their playoff drought against the DHL Stormers but will have to put in a similar effort if they are to stand any chance of beating Munster.
The champions have the easier route to success this year and so far they’ve handled it well, but for the first half of their last league game against Ulster when for a while it looked like they might have blown their chance of finishing top of the log.
However, they got through it and showed their pedigree with a resounding second-half turnaround before they executed a perfect finals rugby game plan to knock the Ospreys out last weekend. Last year’s success has only whet the Munster rugby public’s appetite for more success, and the Scottish team will find the whole environment very different, and quite intimidating, in comparison to when they had their crowd behind them against the Stormers.
If this game was being played in Glasgow, the Warriors would have an excellent chance. They don’t lose at the Scotstoun often, with their last URC defeat there being in last year’s quarterfinal against these opponents when they were hampered by a red card. But at Thomond Park Munster must start as strong favourites to secure home-ground advantage in next week’s decider.
If they fail, and Leinster win against the Bulls, Leinster will be hosting the Warriors in Dublin. If Leinster lose and Munster lose, all roads will lead to Loftus for a final between the Bulls and Glasgow.
Vodacom United Rugby Championship semi-finals (SA Times)
Vodacom Bulls v Leinster - Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Pretoria (Kick-off 16:00)
Referee: Sam Grove-White (SRU)
AR 1: Mike Adamson (SRU) AR 2: Adam Jones (WRU)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (WRU)
Munster v Glasgow Warriors - Thomond Park, Limerick (Kick-off: 19.00)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR)
AR 1: Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR) AR 2: Federico Vedovelli (FIR)
TMO: Matteo Lipirini (FIR)