World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the final round of Rugby World Cup 2023 warm-up matches this weekend.
A win of any margin will see the Springboks climb above the All Blacks, however, South Africa could return to the top of the rankings if they beat New Zealand by more than 15 points and Ireland fails to win against Samoa.
New Zealand will end Ireland’s unbroken 13-month reign at the summit if they beat South Africa by more than 15 points at Twickenham on Friday. A smaller margin of victory for the All Blacks will see Ireland’s lead cut to just 0.19 points if they overcome Manu Samoa as Andy Farrell’s team will not be able to improve their rating due to the 16.63 points difference between the teams.
France and Scotland also cannot pick up any points this weekend with victories over Australia and Georgia respectively. France cannot fall from fourth place even if they lose by more than 15 points in the final Rugby World Cup 2023 warm-up match as neither Scotland nor Australia can catch them.
Les Bleus will regain the third place they lost last weekend from South Africa if they beat Australia on Sunday and the Springboks did so at Twickenham on Friday.
Scotland will remain in fifth if they avoid defeat against Georgia on Saturday, regardless of Australia’s result or what England do against Fiji at Twickenham. However, a beaten Scotland could fall by as many as two places to seventh if England and Australia buck their recent run of poor form and enjoy victories by more than 15 points.
England, in sixth, can only catch Scotland above if they win and their rivals lose with one of the margins by more than 15 points.
Australia can climb as high as fifth if they win at the Stade de France, a ground where they have won more than they have lost against Les Bleus.
A win will lift them above Argentina, regardless of their result in Spain, but the margin and other results at Twickenham and Murrayfield could earn Eddie Jones’ team further rewards.
The prize for a first-ever win for Fiji over England is a new all-time high of seventh. Sixth would be theirs for the taking if such an outcome was combined with defeats for Argentina and Australia.
Wins for Fiji, Australia and Argentina would see England slip to a record low of ninth.
A first-ever loss to Spain is likely to cost Argentina at least one place, with a fall of four places to 11th possible if the margin is more than 15 points and Georgia also beat Scotland.
Georgia needs to beat Scotland by more than 15 points to break into the top 10 for the first time since the rankings began in October 2003, condemning Wales to their lowest-ever position of 11th.
Samoa can improve to 12th place with a victory over number one side Ireland, but it may depend on the margin or results of sides around them.
