Just to add some more fire to the already heated discussions regarding rankings and who beat who and who deserves a better spot on the rankings we added some more NASA formulas to try and predict the future of some of the top rugby schools on the rankings. Remember this is an analysis of all the A teams of the school combined.
However, there are some factors and scouting efforts that could prove the already extremely complex formula to calculate the success of these efforts at the Western Cape Spars' and Cooka Shops in Limpopo/Eastern Cape inadequate.
It is known that these "efforts" are becoming more and more problematic for not only local shoppers but local citizens too. However, I believe that as long money changes hands these "efforts" will still determine the success of some of the schools that are often blamed for not developing their own stars.
Also difficult to predict is the effect of the change of management at the schools who will determine the "will" to win and the formulas used to judge the "success" of the rugby programs.
A few years ago I predicted at a conference, yes I do get invited to those too, that before the end of 2030, South Africa will have 20 professional rugby schools while the rest of the schools will play rugby for the fun and educational advantages thereof.
Unfortunately using our NASA+ formula the top ten schools are already 10% "better" than the following ten schools and 15% plus "better" than the following ten schools. Thereafter, there are thirty schools closely rated whereafter the "quality" drops significantly.
It must be said that there are a few schools in positions 20-50 that can change their fortunes significantly, however, apart from the handful, a significant upgrade in funding and coaching staff is needed while results must only be expected from year five onwards.
Schools in the Top 50 that are already showing marked improvements in their junior teams are Marlow, Middelburg, Transvalia, Glenwood and Outeniqua. Schools that made big changes recently like Diamantveld, Pretoria Boys High and Rustenburg are unfortunately in their first year of the process and should do a lot better in the next four years or more.
In the Top 20 EG Jansen, Jeppe and Waterkloof's juniors are not performing well in comparison to their total ranking, and are expected to take a hiding in the next few years to come. Fortunately these "shortcomings" can easily be rectified with quality scouting as quality coaching and structures are already in place. The English schools (Jeppe) are normally struggling with several grade eight pupils playing rugby for the first time, and will improve year on year.
Monnas and Rondebosch could break into the top 10 in a year or two with both schools' U16 teams struggling in their current competition bandwith.
In the Top 10 Oakdale will do well in the next two years however their U15s and U14s are not quite up to their expected level which could see them struggling in four or five years. DHS and Maritzburg should settle into the top ten but should expect several "surprise" wins and losses during the period.
Garsfontein and especially Boland Landbou will challenge Affies and Paarl Boishaai for the fifth and fourth positions on the log, while Paul Roos should be a safe bet for the third spot for the next few years.
Then the fight for the Number one school title in South Africa. Paarl Gim's U14s are currently ranked first while their U16s were "robbed" from the number 1 spot following an unfortunate draw a few weeks ago. However, Grey College might slip here and there and could lose the crown of the best 1stXV once or twice, but they should retain their crown as the best rugby school for the next four to five years.