The equation is simple for Japan and Argentina at Nantes on Sunday. Victory equals quarter-final qualification and a match next Saturday against the winner of Pool C in Marseille.
The consequences of a defeat for both sides, however, are more complex, with automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027 also a target. Not that Japan or Argentina are focused on anything other than victory here.
Japan head into the match in Nantes on the back of an impressive 28-22 defeat of Samoa that maintained their hopes of advancing from the pool stage for the second successive tournament.
Head coach Jamie Joseph has stuck with continuity throughout the tournament, and this match is no exception. He has made one change to his starting XV from their 28-22 victory against Samoa with Siosaia Fifita replacing Jone Naikabula on the left wing. Eight of the XV have started every game at RWC 2023: Amato Fakatava, Keita Inagaki, Jiwon Gu, Jack Cornelsen, Michael Leitch, Rikiya Matsuda, Kotato Matsushima, and Ryoto Nakamura.
Japan assistant coach John Mitchell said Japan is going to have to stay tough: “Argentina are a very organised, committed, defensive side. I think they are very hard to break down in attack, but we've got really good plans for the match. Especially in the World Cup knockout matches, it comes down to us making sure that we execute our big moments when they arrive and when we present them. Secondly, we are going to have to stay tough and not present any soft moments in this test match.”
In their way, an Argentina side with high hopes of avoiding a repeat of the pool-stage exit they suffered in Japan four years ago, thanks to wins against Samoa and Chile.
Head coach Michael Cheika has made 11 changes to his starting XV from the team that defeated Chile 59-5 last week, with only Guido Petti, Marcos Kremer, Juan Martin Gonzalez and Lucio Cinti retaining their places.
He has, however, stuck with his experience policy. The top three, and five of Los Pumas’ top six most capped players of all-time are named in this match-day squad – Agustín Creevy (104), Nicolas Sanchez (100), Pablo Matera (97), Julian Montoya (91) and Matias Alemanno (90).
A place in the last eight is the target for both sides. But, there can be only one.
Argentina assistant coach Andrés Bordoy said Argentina must take everything they have been working on onto the field: “Now is the time to take everything we have been working on onto the field. We are going to find ourselves with an opponent that really knows what it wants to do, very well structured and organised, and we have to be strong in what we do, aiming to prevail in the set-pieces, in the short game. We did an exhaustive analysis and we know Japan's strengths. They have a very experienced front row, with many international matches behind them, who have evolved a lot in this formation. It will be imposing our way and not adapting to what they want to do.”
Teams:
Japan: 1 Keita Inagaki, 2 Shota Horie, 3 Jiwon Gu, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 5 Amato Fakatava, 6 Michael Leitch, 7 Pieter Labuschagne, 8 Kazuki Himeno (c), 9 Naoto Saito, 10 Rikiya Matsuda, 11 Siosaia Fifita, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 13 Dylan Riley, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 15 Lomano Lemeki. Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Craig Millar, 18 Asaeli Ai Valu, 19 Warner Dearns, 20 Amanaki Saumaki, 21 Yutaka Nagare, 22 Ryohei Yamanaka, 23 Jone Naikabula.
Argentina: 1 Thomas Gallo, 2 Julian Montoya (c), 3 Francisco Gómez Kodela, 4 Guido Petti Pagadizabal, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 6 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 8 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 10 Santiago Carreras, 11 Mateo Carreras, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 13 Lucio Cinti, 14 Emiliano Boffelli, 15 Juan Cruz Mallia. Replacements: 16 Agustín Creevy, 17 Joel Sclavi, 18 Eduardo Bello, 19 Matias Alemanno, 20 Pedro Rubiolo, 21 Lautaro Bazan Velez, 22 Nicolas Sanchez, 23 Matías Moroni.
