The All Blacks’ big win over Italy last week means that they are in a strong position heading into their final Pool A match against Uruguay in Lyon.
It’s a simple equation. A bonus-point win and New Zealand are heading to the quarter-finals, no matter what happens between France and Italy at the same venue on Friday night.
There are scenarios in which France, Italy and New Zealand can finish level on points at the top of Pool A. But their +133 points difference coming into this round of matches means the All Blacks have an important edge in any permutation calculations.
Thirteen places and more than 20 points separate the two sides in World Rugby Men's Rankings powered by Capgemini. The bare statistics suggest a big win for the All Blacks – but mention stats and Uruguay can simply point to the events of three weeks ago, against France, in Lille…
All Blacks captain Sam Cane leads a side featuring nine changes from the one that beat Italy 96-17. Cam Roigard starts at scrum-half and Damian McKenzie is at full-back for the first time since November 2021.
New Zealand scrum coach Greg Feek said it is great that emerging nations want to play tier one nations: "That's great that tier two teams want to play tier one. I think 10 years ago there might have been a fear of doing that or they weren't prepared for it. That's exciting for rugby. As a game, how far we can take the game, who knows? I suppose it comes down to logistics, for players, that would be one thing that comes to my head but I don't want to get into too many things around that. A lot of those questions are for guys who get paid a hell of a lot more money than we do and who probably run the game. But for me, seeing anything positive for the game of rugby is great. Seeing Uruguay and Chile and Portugal how they've prepared themselves for this tournament - not to mention the other ones - has been outstanding."
Uruguay's coach Esteban Meneses has made seven changes to the starting XV from the comeback win over Namibia. Lucas Bianchi makes his first start at RWC 2023 in the back row, as does the experienced Rodrigo Silva, in place of Baltazar Amaya at full-back, and Gastón Mieres replaces Bautista Basso on the right wing.
Manuel Ardao, meanwhile, has been the most dangerous breakdown player in the tournament, hitting a competition-high 32 defensive rucks, winning the most steals – six – and forcing the fourth-most penalties – two.
Uruguay head coach Esteban Meneses said analysing the All Blacks is a dream: "Today, sitting in this situation of analysing them is a dream. It brings the challenge of maximising Uruguay's strengths as a team and finding a way to neutralise theirs, as they do the simple perfectly. We have studied them and will want to have the ability to try to neutralise them in the game for as many minutes as possible. It is a professional challenge, a luxury, and I am very grateful to be in this situation. Uruguay has to be aware of its strengths and how to maximize them during the 80 minutes. Our great challenge as coaches is to put them under pressure, acknowledging who we are playing, playing to our terms and not theirs, which is where they are really strong."
Teams:
All Blacks: 1 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Samuel Whitelock, 5 Tupou Vaa'i, 6 Shannon Frizell, 7 Sam Cane (c), 8 Luke Jacobson, 9 Cam Roigard, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 11 Leicester Fainga'anuku, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 14 Will Jordan, 15 Damian McKenzie. Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Ethan Blackadder, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Caleb Clarke.
Uruguay: 1 Mateo Sanguinetti, 2 German Kessler, 3 Diego Arbelo, 4 Ignacio Dotti, 5 Manuel Leindekar, 6 Manuel Ardao, 7 Lucas Bianchi, 8 Manuel Diana, 9 Santiago Arata, 10 Felipe Etcheverry, 11 Nicolas Freitas, 12 Andres Vilaseca (c), 13 Tomas Inciarte, 14 Gaston Mieres, 15 Rodrigo Silva. Replacements: 16 Guillermo Pujadas, 17 Matias Benitez, 18 Ignacio Peculo, 19 Juan Manuel, Rodríguez, 20 Santiago Civetta, 21 Agustin Ormaechea, 22 Felipe Berchesi, 23 Juan Manuel Alonso.
