For South Africa’s three franchises in contention for the home playoff places in the Vodacom United Rugby Championship, the equation couldn’t be simpler - just win.
But with the Welsh Shield far from settled and the results giving one Welsh side a place in the Champions’ Cup next season, two South African franchises have tougher assignments than normal given the motivation there will be for the Welsh teams they face.
Already there have been some concerns expressed by the Ospreys, who face the Bulls on Friday night knowing they need to win to have a chance of grabbing the top spot in the Welsh Shield.
Ospreys coach Toby Booth believes that the Scarlets - who are level with them on 44 points and play a day later - have an advantage because they know what they will need to do after the Bulls game in Swansea the night before.
But either way, both teams face South African sides on the cusp of clinching home ground advantage in their first playoff games so the home teams shouldn’t expect an easy passage in their quest to play in Europe next season.
The difference between qualifying for the Champions’ Cup and the Challenge Cup in terms of revenue and the standing of the opposition they will face in the respective competitions, but in addition to that, there is also the matter of pride that comes with being recognised as the top Welsh team in the competition.
Neither of them can advance to the URC playoffs, so these games are effectively the final engagements of the season for the Welsh sides and the hunger to get into Europe gives the games the status of a final for the respective teams. By contrast, in addition to their quest to finish as high as they can on the overall log and also win the South African Shield, the Stormers and Bulls will be keen to notch up another victory against a Welsh team to underline the strength of the local challenge in their debut season.
There’s also a lot to play for in the Scottish derby in Edinburgh on Saturday night. Ironically, just like the two Welsh conference challengers, the two Scottish teams are also level on log points, 50, and placed seventh and eighth respectively overall. The winner will take the Scottish/Italian Shield and advance to the Champions Cup next year, while the loser will have to make do with playing in the Challenge Cup so that the Welsh winner can be accommodated in the high echelon competition.
With Leinster having already qualified for the top spot, another curveball for the South Africans is that if Munster beat what looks to be a second-string Leinster side, it could mean one SA team may miss out on a home playoff game - that is if all three SA teams in contention win their away games.
Ulster’s chance of claiming a home playoff makes them by far the most difficult opponent for the Sharks this weekend in Belfast, with Friday night’s game a massive one for both sides.
Here are the permutations for South Africa’s three teams in contention, along with the two Irish sides that can upset their hopes.
Munster (playing Leinster away)
Best possible: 2nd
Worst possible: 6th
A win of any type will guarantee a home quarterfinal due to Munster’s superior points differential. However as they are level on points with the Cell C Sharks and the Stormers, a try scoring bonus point might be required by Munster in their quest to finish second. They will have the advantage of knowing what is needed as their game at Aviva Stadium is the last of the weekend. A loss will make Munster vulnerable to missing out on top four, with the Bulls their biggest threat.
Cell C Sharks (playing Ulster away)
Best possible: 2nd
Worst: 6th
The Sharks are level with the Stormers in the South African Shield both on log points and points differential but are marginally ahead going into their final game because they have scored 57 tries against the Cape team’s 56. Like the Stormers and Munster, a home win will be enough to secure a home quarterfinal, but a bonus point might be needed to clinch second.
DHL Stormers (playing Scarlets away)
Best possible: 2nd
Worst: 6th
Much the same as the Sharks and Munster. A loss to the Scarlets will not rule out a home quarterfinal for the Stormers, but it would require other results to go their way.
Ulster (playing Cell C Sharks at home)
Best possible: 2nd
Worst: 7th
A win will guarantee a home quarterfinal for Ulster, remembering of course that if they do win at the Kingspan on Friday night they will go ahead of the team they beat, the Sharks. A second-placed finish is still possible for the Irish team but it would probably require both Munster and the Stormers to lose as they hold an advantage over Ulster in any tie-breakers employed to separate the teams.
Vodacom Bulls (playing Ospreys away)
Best possible: 2nd
Worst possible: 7th
To finish second, the Bulls would have to beat the Ospreys with a try-scoring bonus point and win by more than 25 points, coupled with losses for the Munsters and the Stormers and a draw in the game between Ulster and the Sharks. To make it into the top four and secure a home quarterfinal, which is a more realistic possibility for them, would require them to win with a bonus point and two of Munster, the Stormers and the Sharks to lose. Defeat would enable the winner of the Scottish derby to move above them on the final log.