There’s a lot at stake when Japan face Samoa at Stadium de Toulouse on Thursday. Two sides’ quarter-final hopes are on the line in a ferociously tight Pool D at 21:00, in which a single point separates second from fourth, with a third nation watching in the wings.
Both Japan and Samoa come into this match with a win, a loss, and five points from two matches, with the latter second in the standings on points difference.
Not that either side’s destiny is entirely in their hands. Argentina, sitting one point behind in Pool D and with a game in hand on both Japan and Samoa after this match, will be paying close attention. They won’t want to miss out on the quarter-finals for a second tournament in a row.
And, given how close the race for the second quarter-final spot behind England is, third place – and its automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027 in Australia – becomes just as important.
Japan’s head coach Jamie Joseph has made two changes to his starting XV from their 34-12 loss against England, with Dylan Riley replacing Tomoki Osada in midfield and Lomano Lemeki coming in for Semisi Masiresa at full-back.
Joseph said they are not comparing their tactics to 2019: "We haven't made the comparison. We beat Ireland such a long time ago. This tournament is completely different. I thought against England, [it was a big test match] and it was a big lesson. It seems for tier-two teams it is maintaining that intensity for the entirety of the game.
"It’s something we talked about all week. Something we have to plan for to make sure no one tires. We have a mental plan to deal with that. In terms of preparation that is all we can really do because Samoa have an experienced coaching team. I feel they have a much better squad than they did at the last World Cup."
Samoa head coach Seilala Mapusua has made four changes to his starting XV from the 19-10 defeat to Argentina. Taleni Seu comes into the back-row after an impressive 26 minutes off the bench last week, Sa Jordan Taufua replaces Steven Luatua at eight, Alai D’Angelo Leuila partners Tumua Manu in the centre, and Ed Fidow replaces Nigel Ah-Wong on the wing.
Mapusa was carefull to discuss muh of their gameplan before this important match: "I probably won't talk too much about it as there a lot of Japanese journalists in the room. But we are very wary of Japan's strengths in terms of their speed and also their never-say-die attitude.
"They are very technically correct in how they play. We will be looking to counter those strengths and implement how we want to play in terms of using our physicality and doing the basics well.
"That is going to be the key for us, and trying to make sure we can absorb the pressure Japan will put on us. We will try to inflict the same pressure on Japan."
Teams:
Japan: 1 Keita Inagaki, 2 Shota Horie, 3 Jiwon Gu, 4 Jack Cornelsen, 5 Amato Fakatava, 6 Michael Leitch, 7 Pieter Labuschagne, 8 Kazuki Himeno (c), 9 Yutaka Nagare, 10 Rikiya Matsuda, 11 Jone Naikabula, 12 Ryoto Nakamura, 13 Dylan Riley, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 15 Lomano Lemeki. Replacements: 16 Atsushi Sakate, 17 Craig Millar, 18 Asaeli Ai Valu, 19 Warner Dearns, 20 Kanji Shimokawa, 21 Naoto Saito, 22 Seungsin Lee, 23 Tomoki Osada.
Samoa: 1 James Lay, 2 Seilala Lam, 3 Paul Alo-Emile, 4 Chris Vui (c), 5 Theo McFarland, 6 Taleni Junior Agaese Seu, 7 Fritz Lee, 8 Sa Jordan Taufua, 9 Jonathan Taumateine, 10 Christian Leali'ifano, 11 Ben Lam, 12 Alai D'Angelo Leuila, 13 Tumua Manu, 14 Ed Fidow, 15 Duncan Paia'aua. Replacements: 16 Sama Malolo, 17 Jordan Lay, 18 Michael Alaalatoa, 19 Steven Luatua, 20 Alamanda Motuga, 21 Melani Matavao, 22 Neria Fomai, 23 Danny Toala.
