Strange as it may seem, the match against Italy on Friday at 21:00 in Lyon is a must-win for New Zealand. The All Blacks come into this match third in Pool A, five points adrift of opponents Italy, and a further three behind leaders France. An unthinkable defeat here would leave them facing a pool stage exit for the first time.
All Blacks head coach Ian Foster has made nine changes in his starting XV from their 71-3 victory against Namibia. Only Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Nepo Laulala, Brodie Retallick, Dalton Papali’i, Ardie Savea, and Beauden Barrett retain their places.
Foster also said he expected the match to be physical: "That's rugby, everyone is trying to do that. They'll be trying to do that to us. It's a physical game. It's not a lack of respect from anyone. Both teams, there's a lot at stake. This was always going to be a game we knew we had to get really excited about and play well in.
"The good thing is that we are playing a team that is confident, so there are no surprises. They've earned that. In the last two years, we've seen a lot of growth in their game. I made the point after the Six Nations, I thought they were one of the highlights of the Six Nations, the way they played and the competitiveness of all their games."
Italy have 10 points from a possible 10 so far, thanks to a 52-8 win over Namibia and a come-from-behind 38-17 victory over Uruguay. But their hard work starts here, first with this match then a final pool encounter with hosts France next Friday at the same venue.
Italy head coach Kieran Crowley has moved Niccolo Cannone to the bench, bringing in Dino Lamb, Stephen Varney and Luca Morisi, while Alessandro Garbisi and Lorenzo Pani drop out of the squad. Tommaso Allan returns to full-back, while Paolo Garbisi moves from inside centre, back to his favoured fly-half position.
The Azzurri are brimming with confidence right now, but a win over New Zealand would be a titanic upset. Crowley said he believes Italy can become the first Italian side to beat New Zealand: "This is a new team. This team has never played New Zealand and the New Zealand team they'll name today has never played Italy. Yes, there is stats, there is history but history is always there to be broken.
"We are under no illusions as to what is coming. They are going to come at us and they are going to be aggressive and they are going to try to intimidate us. They'll try to bully us. We have to embrace that challenge.
"They are in a situation, same as us, they need to win to move on. So, they are going to try and impart themselves physically on us and really intimidate us, bully us. They'll come direct and they'll come hard. But it all starts up front. It starts with the low numbers and if the low numbers can get you on top it makes it easier for the others."
Teams:
All Blacks: 1 Ofa Tuungafasi, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Nepo Laulala, 4 Brodie Retallick, 5 Scott Barrett, 6 Shannon Frizell, 7 Dalton Papali'i, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 9 Aaron Smith, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 11 Mark Telea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Will Jordan, 15 Beauden Barrett. Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Samuel Whitelock, 20 Sam Cane, 21 Cam Roigard, 22 Damian McKenzie, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown.
Italy: 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 3 Marco Riccioni, 4 Dino Lamb, 5 Federico Ruzza, 6 Sebastian Negri, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 9 Stephen Varney, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 11 Montanna Ioane, 12 Luca Morisi, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 15 Tommaso Allan. Replacements: 16 Hame Faiva, 17 Ivan Nemer, 18 Simone Ferrari, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Toa Halafihi, 22 Martin Page-Relo, 23 Paolo Odogwu.